As the NHL calendar turns to late May 2025, the clock on Mitch Marner’s tenure with the Toronto Maple Leafs is ticking louder than ever. With unrestricted free agency looming on July 1st, the organization faces a franchise-altering decision: commit to a massive, long-term extension for the star winger, or risk losing him for nothing.
Amidst the endless debate, one creative, complex, and rare solution presents a compelling, if improbable, path forward: a sign-and-trade. It’s a move that could, in theory, satisfy everyone, transforming a potential crisis into a strategic reset. Let’s explore how it would work and if it’s a realistic endgame.
How an NHL Sign-and-Trade Works
The foundation of any NHL sign-and-trade lies in a key provision of the collective bargaining agreement: teams can sign their own pending free agents to eight-year contracts, while all other teams are limited to seven-year maximum terms.
This extra year represents significant value—both in total earnings and long-term security.
The process is a three-party dance: a player on the verge of free agency negotiates and signs a new contract with their current team, only to be immediately traded to a predetermined destination. The acquiring team gets that coveted eighth year of control, something they couldn’t offer on the open market. Meanwhile, the original team receives compensation rather than watching a valuable asset walk away for free.
The Marner Equation: A Trifecta of Benefits
For this to work, it has to be a clear win for all three parties involved.
For Mitch Marner: The financial incentive is substantial. An eighth year on a contract for a player of his caliber could be worth well over $12 million in additional guaranteed earnings. For a player who has historically maximized his earning potential, this alone is a powerful motivator. More importantly, because he has a full No-Movement Clause (NMC), he holds all the cards. This path gives him maximum leverage: he gets the biggest possible contract and gets to hand-pick his next team.
For the Maple Leafs: Rather than suffering the total loss of a 100-point winger, Toronto could execute a strategic pivot. A sign-and-trade turns Marner’s projected $12M+ cap hit into multiple assets that could address long-standing roster holes, like a top-four defenseman or increased forward depth. It’s the only mechanism that allows the Leafs to recoup significant value for a departing star, turning a potential disaster into a franchise-reshaping opportunity.
For the Acquiring Team: An elite playmaker locked up for eight years provides immediate impact and long-term roster stability. It allows them to bypass the uncertainty and frantic bidding wars of July 1st free agency, ensuring they land their primary target on an optimal contract.
Historical Context: The Tkachuk Template
The most prominent recent example occurred in 2022 when the Calgary Flames orchestrated a sign-and-trade with the Florida Panthers for Matthew Tkachuk. After signing an eight-year, $76 million extension with Calgary, Tkachuk was immediately dealt to Florida for a massive package including Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, a prospect, and a first-round pick.
This transaction proved that sign-and-trades can work when all parties are motivated. Tkachuk got his preferred destination and maximum term, Calgary received immediate, high-end NHL talent to remain competitive, and Florida landed their franchise player.
The Major Hurdles: Why This is a Long Shot
While Treliving has successfully navigated these waters before, a Marner trade faces its own unique and significant set of hurdles. The rarity of these deals isn’t about general complexity; it’s about overcoming four specific obstacles, starting with the most fundamental question of all.
The Eight-Year Question: This entire scenario is built on the allure of the eighth year. But what if Marner doesn’t want it? In an era of a rapidly rising salary cap, star players are often eyeing shorter 3-to-5-year deals. This allows them to sign another massive contract in their prime, consistently maximizing their percentage of a team’s cap space. If Marner’s camp prioritizes cap percentage over guaranteed long-term security, the eighth year—the very engine of a sign-and-trade—loses its value. Without that core incentive, the entire premise is a non-starter.
The No-Movement Clause is Everything: Assuming he does want the eight-year deal, his NMC is the non-negotiable centerpiece. He has complete control. The Leafs cannot simply engage the team offering the best assets; they can only negotiate with a team that Marner has explicitly approved for an eight-year commitment.
The Perfect Partner Paradox: The ideal trading partner must check three difficult boxes: a) be a destination Marner desires, b) possess the substantial cap space for his massive new contract, and c) have the specific, high-value assets (young roster players, top prospects) that the Leafs would demand. The list of teams that check all three boxes is exceptionally short.
The Public Pressure Cooker: A deal of this magnitude involving a player of Marner’s stature in a market like Toronto would be intensely scrutinized from the first whisper. Leaks could complicate delicate negotiations between the teams and with Marner’s camp, adding a layer of public pressure that can derail fragile deals.
Market Dynamics: Who Could Even Make the Call?
Teams that could realistically pursue this path must have cap flexibility, competitive aspirations, and assets Toronto would covet. Clubs like Utah, Anaheim, or Chicago are often mentioned.
However, each presents a challenge when viewed through the lens of the major hurdles. While a team like Utah has the cap space and a need for a star, would it be a preferred long-term destination for Marner? A team in a more desirable market might lack the high-end prospects or young roster players that Toronto would require in return. This is the central puzzle any potential suitor must solve.
The Verdict: An Improbable but Logical Endgame
While a Marner sign-and-trade remains a long shot, the unique dynamics in Toronto may favor this scenario more than ever before.
The Maple Leafs’ continued playoff disappointments, despite years of regular-season success with their core, suggest that significant roster changes are necessary. Rather than committing long-term to a group that has repeatedly fallen short, management may view Marner’s pending free agency as a chance to pivot their roster construction. A sign-and-trade is the only way to extract maximum value from that pivot.
For a player who has consistently and smartly maximized his value, the financial lure of that eighth year—combined with the power to choose his destination and escape Toronto’s playoff pressure cooker—might make this complex arrangement worth pursuing.
Ultimately, a sign-and-trade is the Leafs’ only mechanism to retain a degree of control if Marner decides his future lies elsewhere. It transforms the departure of a star from a total loss into a strategic, roster-defining opportunity. While the odds remain long, the powerful incentive of the eighth year could align with organizational necessity to make this improbable path the most logical one for both team and star.